Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
